The East Coast will see the biggest impact of coronavirus (Photo by James Leynse/Corbis via Getty … [+]
Corbis via Getty Images
Coronavirus has impacted the housing market at every level already. Now the question is which markets around the U.S. will see the biggest negative impact of all. Looking at where the home showings are happening around the country is one way to forecast what is happening, but another way is to look at the economic status of counties before the virus hit. A recent study aims to answer the question by looking at the locations where high costs of home ownership meet the places that were already struggling more than others. From their data, it looks like New Jersey is going to be one of the most impacted parts of the country. Of the top fifteen counties most at risk, seven of them are in New Jersey. If you expand the number to the top 50 counties, 14 of them are in New Jersey with five of those being suburbs of New York City (specifically: Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Middlesex and Union counties).
The study looked at a total of 483 counties and ranked them based on the combination of three variables: the percentage that received a foreclosure notice in the last quarter of 2019; the percentage of homes that owe more than their value; and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major costs of homeownership. All variables were given equal weight in the analysis.
Florida also presents some reasons to worry, with 10 counties showing up in the top 50. But only one of them, Flager County, ranks in the top 15. As a state that was hit hard during the 2008-2009 downturn, it is perhaps a relief to see they may not have has hard a time during this downturn. This could be because lending was much harder to come by in this state for a longer time period than most others so now the homeowner population is a lower risk.
In the top 50 most at-risk counties, 36 of the counties had median house prices ranging from $160,000 to $300,000.
Here is a look at the top fifteen most at-risk markets with the percentage of homes that owe more than they are worth.
- Sussex County, New Jersey: 25.4%
- Warren County, New Jersey: 28.1%
- Charles County, Maryland: 23.1%
- McHenry County, Illinois: 23.6%
- Rockland County, New York: 15.4%
- Atlantic County, New Jersey: 34.8%
- Passaic County, New Jersey: 19.3%
- Ocean County, New Jersey:16.8%
- Gloucester County, New Jersey: 27.3%
- Flagler County, Florida: 14.8%
- Monroe County, Pennsylvania: 32.2%
- Orange County, New York: 14.0%
- Essex County, New Jersey: 16.2%
- Sussex County, Delaware: 18.4%
- Spotsylvania County, Virginia: 17.9%
For a more complete rundown on the results, head to the ATTOM Data Solutions summary.